The Diff
The Cavs have a 14% chance at the #1 overall pick.
Historically, the Cavs have done pretty well in that spot- LeBron, Kyrie, Kevin Love (via Andrew Wiggins), Brad Daugherty, and Austin Carr were all #1 overall picks. On the other side of the spectrum from LeBron James, the Cavs also selected Anthony Bennett with a #1 overall, and at one point, they so carelessly traded first round picks that the ‘Stepien Rule’ still exists today.1
If the ping pong balls do not bounce in our favor for that #1 pick, we have close to a 70% chance to select in the #2-4 slots. In some years, the drop between #1 and #4 is huge. Like, Zion Williamson to De’Andre Hunter huge. The 2020 draft, which lacks a Zion-level talent, doesn’t look to have that much of a drop-off.
I see five potential picks who have the talent to be an All-Star contributor for the Cavs in the years to come, but only one of them that could come in and not just start, but alter the path of the franchise.
The Players
Anthony Edwards | Guard | 6’5″ | 19 Year Old Freshman | Georgia
Edwards is the closest this draft has to a sure thing. He has a legit NBA body,2 and he is an explosive athlete. He was a 20-point a game guy in college who can get his own shot from the basket, the mid-range, or deep.
The primary concerns with Edwards are mental- shot selection and consistency of effort. A lesser concern will be his need to tighten up his handle to be effective in the smaller spaces the NBA affords. The biggest question for this potential #1 pick is simple: Does he have the intensity to be the best player on a contending team?
My ideal comp for Edwards would be Dwayne Wade if you take 5 points off of his ‘Driving Dunk’ and ‘Draw Foul’ attributes. Alternatively, you could call him a more explosive Demar DeRozan.
LaMelo Ball | Guard | 6’6″ | 18 Year Old Pro | Illawarra Hawks
If you’ve heard of just one player in this draft, it’s Ball. Well, you’ve probably either heard of his brother Lonzo or his dad, Lavar. That baggage has tended to get in the way of any actual evaluation of his play, but that’s what we care about.
Where Anthony Edwards might struggle with his handle at the start of his NBA career, that is perhaps LaMelo’s greatest strength. That extends to his passing, where he is great both as a decision-maker and at executing passes, flinging dimes with either hand and to any spot on the court.
One thing to note here is that Ball is the only 18-year-old in this group. Because of his extreme youth and the nature of his flaws (shot selection, scoring efficiency, lack of grown-man strength), I think Ball has the highest ceiling for any guard / wing in this draft.
Would it be lazy to use Lonzo for his player comp? Yea? OK. LaMelo is further along at this stage in my mind than Lonzo was, and will likely have less distractions. I think he profiles somewhere between a taller D’Angelo Russell and a smoother Dejounte Murray.
James Wiseman | Center | 7’1″ | 19 Year Old | Memphis
Wiseman exists at the physical limit of length and mobility. He’s not going to switch out and dance with a point guard, but he can slide across and close off the paint, and he has the standing reach (9’4″) to get that weak stuff outta here.
You’re not going to run the offense through him- he’s not a shot creator or a notable passer. He has the potential, though, to be deadly in the pick-and-roll, from the ‘dunker spot’, and potentially from behind the 3-point line. The most dominant aspect of his offensive game is his ability as a wide receiver- he has soft hands and a humongous catch radius.
As with so many of these younger players, he will need to be more disciplined and stop trying to face up from the midrange. 33% from three might be acceptable, but 35% from the mid-range won’t be. My biggest concern with Wiseman isn’t his ability, but his value: centers are basically the running backs of the NBA. Will he be as good as Clint Capela (who still got traded off a contender)? If he gets consistent from deep without falling in love with it, he could be the dream 21st century center.
I think, comp-wise, his ceiling is Giannis Antetokounmpo. His floor is probably Kostas Antetokounmpo.
Onyeka Okongwu | Center | 6’9″ | 19 Year Old Freshman | USC
Okongwu is the perfect modern defensive center. He has good agility on the switch, and thanks to his leaping ability and feel around the basket, he is a solid rim protector despite his size.
Like Wiseman, he’s not going to be the focal point of the offense, but he’s got solid basketball IQ, allowing him to make the correct reads even in advanced read / option-based offenses. He’s also extremely efficient, shooting over 60% from the field and 72% from the line.
The team that drafts Okongwu is hoping he profiles out to my comp for him, Bam Adebayo.
Deni Avdija | Forward | 6’9″ | 19 Year Old Pro | Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Avdija might be the most feast-or-famine pick at the top end if this year’s draft. If his recent shooting numbers are a window into his future, his potential range is Toni Kukoc to Luka Doncic. If it was just a hot streak, we could be looking at Cedi’s twin brother.
Deni is bigger, at 6’9″, and could easily fill out to a modern NBA power forward. He has NBA DNA- both his mother and father were professional basketball players. He’s also been playing with professional basketball players for three years already, so he is prepared for the nine-to-five aspect of grinding and putting in work.
To me, he profiles as a solid all-around player who could develop into something much more. He plays with speed and IQ, and he is at home both off the ball and leading the break. The biggest question I see is whether he can handle the size and speed of an NBA forward.
My NBA comp for him would be pre-injury Gordon Hayward.
Size and Duplicity
Of the top five picks in most mock drafts, there are two guards, two centers, and a forward.
If you’ve been playing along on the home version, you’ll know that we have taken three guards in the the first round in the past two years. We’re also probably going to be paying Andre Drummond almost $30,000,000 next season to man the middle.
To me, taking another guard means trading one of Garland or Sexton. While Edwards and Ball both have better size, I don’t think that either of them are so ‘can’t-miss’ that we move on from our guys.
Sexton is a 20+PPG bulldog who will be the leader of this next version of the Cavs. Garland, much like Sexton the year before, came out slow but started to show things before the season disappeared in a pack of face masks. We also need to remember that Garland was recovering from a meniscus injury- he lacked the pop around screens and going to the rim that he had in high school and at Vanderbilt prior to going out.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Andre Drummond. He is an NBA dinosaur at center- a remnant of a once-proud species now all but extinct. I think, though, that that is where his value comes from. He’s arguably the biggest talent on this team, and in his prime. While running backs are not the highest-value stock in the NFL at the moment, Ezekiel Elliot is still an impact player- and so is Andre Drummond. Teams are not built to deal with grown men in the paint. Taking a center in the top five of the draft doesn’t feel like a fit for this team, or even the current NBA, unless maybe you’re the Warriors and you’re already pretty tough at every other position.
On The Clock
I don’t need 30 seconds to make this pick if I’m the Cavs. If he’s available, I’m welcoming Deni Avdija to the Wine & Gold.
His ceiling is as high as anyone in the draft, but with his size, mobility, and proven history against pro players, he might just have the highest floor, too. He plays at our weakest position from the young core, and he’s another guy that can really move the ball.
He could potentially start at the small forward slot, and move into the power forward / stretch forward slot as needed. He would give us the option to go big (Porter at the 2, Avdija at the 3, Love, Drummond) or go switchy and quick (Garland, Sexton, Porter, Avdija, Nance).
My vision for this team is to build it 10-deep with guys that can pass, shoot, and defend. We don’t necessarily have a path to a LeBron / Durant / etc. franchise-defining player. We do have the ability to build an egalitarian offensive team that plays tough and together on defense.
Avdija could be the missing piece that, along with continued development from our young core, gets us back into the playoff hunt. The Cavs were trending up before COVID reared its’ ugly head, so hopefully the 2020 draft odds will be ever in our favor, and we can hit the court in force next season.