Let’s start by going over some line-ups. I’m not really interested in the starting line-up, so here’s my projected closing five. Then, we’ll move on to some rotation pieces. Last, I’ll make some predictions and where I think the Cavs will finish up.
Best Line-Up
Garland
Sexton
Okoro
Nance
Drummond
Garland is going to show marked improvement this year- I’m predicting a 17/6/3 line on 38% from deep. His 87% free-throw rate tells me he has room to grow as a shooter, and being a year removed from his knee injury means he should have an improved shooting platform, and he should also be more explosive to the rim, which in turn should give him more room to shoot.
Collin Sexton… Will he make another jump this year? He was a 21/3/3 guy last year. If he can push into the 25/5/5 range, he becomes a clear All-Star to me, and should push us into a playoff berth.
Isaac Okoro feels bigger than 6’5″ when he’s on the court, and if he can maintain his aggression when the ball finds him, he should be our minutes-leader at small forward. Okoro’s defense needs to be a driving force on this team.
Hot take: Nance’s defense, general athleticism, and improved spot-up shooting provides a better fit for a team with a ball-dominant backcourt. When available, Love will certainly be the starter, but he is better suited to giving us bursts of scoring, staggering his minutes opposite Sexton.
Drummond would have been the starter over Thompson even if Thompson was still here. In a tight playoff series against a modern offense, it might be tough to get him time on the court. During the regular season? He’s the best big we’ve had since the 90’s. He is a true big man, and he can score, rebound, and defend the interior. Starting the year with him is a major upgrade from last year, and it guarantees that virtually every line-up we run with will have 5 capable scorers.
The Pieces
Dylan Windler: This guy is going to give us the feeling of a second 1st round pick this year. I have no idea if he is going to be able to defend enough to get real minutes, but he is a sniper to a degree that we did not have on the team last year. He’s a guy who can give us 10 points on 3 shots a couple times a week.
Kevin Porter Jr.: Still can’t legally buy a drink until MAY. He’s got the talent and body to be an All-Star once he develops his handle and shot a bit. I could see him being a 15/5/5 guy on 28 minutes a night this year.
Cedi Osman: This is Cedi’s make-or-break season. In terms of body, he’s still the most natural small forward on the roster. He’s already a 38% shooter from deep- he needs to be aggressive behind the line to open up his pump-and-drive game, which will in turn hopefully empower his playmaking. He should be a 15/5/5 guy at the minutes he played last year.
JaVale McGee: As the starting center throughout the regular season, you might expect him to play a bigger role this year on the Cavs than I do. I think he has definite value- he’s an efficient dunker and he can get up to protect the rim, but I don’t know how many minutes will be available for a second traditional big. I could see Love eating his minutes as a stretch ‘5’ in closing lineups.
Kevin Love: I covered him a bit in the ‘Best LineUp’ section, but here’s what I want to see from Kevin Love in 2020/2021: I want him to be an ultra-aggressive offensive leader- I want him to catch the ball and immediately shoot or drive. I want him putting pressure on his whole side of the floor. He should be shooting from three, picking up fouls, and dropping dimes. No holding on to the ball, no multiple pump fakes, just get it and go.
Secondary Effects
Coach Bickerstaff
He will be good for adding three wins to last year’s total. Coach Beilein was no doubt a nice guy, but I remain unconvinced that he was aware that the shot clock is only 24 seconds in the NBA. I haven’t been able to find a stat, but I know we had at least a dozen turnovers on shot-clock violations. That is the kind of turnover a young team just cannot have. JB will not run our guys into injuries during practice, and he seems to have a strong rapport with both the young guys and the vets.
Shortened, Compacted Season:
This will slow some development, but the youth of this Cavs team should keep them physically resilient.
In-season Trades / Signings:
I don’t predict any big changes unless the Cavs are forced into making injury or COVID-related moves. There are ever-present Love / Drummond trade rumors, but the teams that could use them can’t afford them, and the teams that could afford them don’t want them.
Last Words and Predictions
I think Collin Sexton makes the All-Star Team.
I think the Cavs will have seven players average double-figure scoring.
If we see a big year from Garland, get ready to buy some playoff tickets.
Vegas has the Cavs winning 22.5 games. The Athletic is pegging them at no more than 24. I’m predicting 28-30. I think they have a real chance to make it to the play-in in the East.
I think the Cavs could finish ahead of the Bulls, Pistons, Knicks without a ton of growth. If Garland makes strides, I think we can add the Hornets and Magic to that list, and that gets us in the Play-In. If we get real growth out of Sexton, Garland, Porter, and Windler, and Okoro comes out as a 15PPG guy, I think we can best the Hawks and maybe start to stare at the Wizards. My best-case has us playing a home Play-In game, which gives us a shot at a couple of real playoff games at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse.
If you’re at the game on Sunday, say “Hi” if you see me- from at least six feet!